SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Mike Hayler v Steve Baker (Mon 18 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mike Hayler. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Mike Hayler: 2,302, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,069, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Mike Hayler to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Steve Baker.

Mike Hayler won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Hayler played 74% better than Steve Baker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Hayler actually played at a level of 2,876 and Steve Baker at a level of 1,656. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Hayler changes to +24% and Steve Baker changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Hayler becomes +9.2% and for Steve Baker becomes -8.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mike Hayler is +6.9% and for Steve Baker is -6.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Steve Baker is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Hayler: 85%, Steve Baker: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Hayler: 68%, Steve Baker: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Hayler: 2,458, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Steve Baker: 1,968, level confidence: 72%.