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Joshua Green v Allister Crossley (Mon 18 Mar 2019)

Match won by Allister Crossley. Result: 11-3,5-11,11-4,9-11,9-11.

Starting level for Joshua Green: 2,109, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Allister Crossley: 1,659, level confidence: 64%.
Joshua Green to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Allister Crossley.

Allister Crossley won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Allister Crossley played 5% better than Joshua Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Allister Crossley actually played at a level of 1,914 and Joshua Green at a level of 1,828. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Allister Crossley changes to +14% and Joshua Green changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Allister Crossley becomes +6.6% and for Joshua Green becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Allister Crossley is +5% and for Joshua Green is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Allister Crossley: 80%, Joshua Green: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Allister Crossley: 69%, Joshua Green: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joshua Green: 2,021, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Allister Crossley: 1,739, level confidence: 69%.