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Lewis Walters v Diego Gobbi (Sat 16 Mar 2019)

Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 8-11,10-12,11-6,8-11.

Starting level for Lewis Walters: 18,562, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 20,610, level confidence: 57%.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Lewis Walters.

Diego Gobbi won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played 19% better than Lewis Walters in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Gobbi actually played at a level of 21,375 and Lewis Walters at a level of 17,898. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to +3.5% and Lewis Walters changes to -2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes +1.4% and for Lewis Walters becomes -1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Yorks PSA York Classic' so the adjustment for Diego Gobbi is +1.3% and for Lewis Walters is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 75%, Lewis Walters: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 73%, Lewis Walters: 85%.

Final level for Lewis Walters: 18,377, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi: 20,869, level confidence: 73%.