Lewis Walters v Diego Gobbi (Sat 16 Mar 2019)
Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 8-11,10-12,11-6,8-11.
Starting level for
Lewis Walters:
18,562, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Diego Gobbi:
20,610, level confidence: 57%.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing
11% better than Lewis Walters.
Diego Gobbi won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played
19% better than Lewis Walters in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Gobbi actually played at a level of
21,375 and Lewis Walters at a level of
17,898. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to +3.5% and Lewis Walters changes to -2.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes +1.4% and for Lewis Walters becomes -1.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Yorks PSA York Classic' so the adjustment for Diego Gobbi is +1.3% and for Lewis Walters is -1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 75%, Lewis Walters: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 73%, Lewis Walters: 85%.
Final level for Lewis Walters:
18,377, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi:
20,869, level confidence: 73%.