Harry Falconer v Diego Gobbi (Sat 16 Mar 2019)
Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 13-15,11-8,2-11,11-8,10-12.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
19,706, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Diego Gobbi:
21,032, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing
7% better than Harry Falconer.
Diego Gobbi won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played
11% better than Harry Falconer in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Gobbi actually played at a level of
21,470 and Harry Falconer at a level of
19,304. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to +1.9% and Harry Falconer changes to -2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes +0.8% and for Harry Falconer becomes -0.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Yorks PSA York Classic' so the adjustment for Diego Gobbi is +0.8% and for Harry Falconer is -0.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 85%, Harry Falconer: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 83%, Harry Falconer: 82%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
19,552, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi:
21,190, level confidence: 83%.