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Nicholas Snr Wall v Diego Gobbi (Sun 17 Mar 2019)

Match won by Nicholas Snr Wall. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Nicholas Snr Wall: 12,565, level confidence: 31%.
Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 20,957, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Nicholas Snr Wall.

Nicholas Snr Wall won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicholas Snr Wall played 65% better than Diego Gobbi in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicholas Snr Wall actually played at a level of 20,844 and Diego Gobbi at a level of 12,633. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 66% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 48% and 48% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicholas Snr Wall changes to +48% and Diego Gobbi changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicholas Snr Wall becomes +10.6% and for Diego Gobbi becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Yorks PSA York Classic' so the adjustment for Nicholas Snr Wall is +9.5% and for Diego Gobbi is -3.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nicholas Snr Wall is limited to +7.5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Nicholas Snr Wall has already increased 20% since starting this event at level 10436. The amount a player can increase in a single event is limited to 25% so Nicholas Snr Wall's increase for this match has been limited to 3.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicholas Snr Wall: 56%, Diego Gobbi: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicholas Snr Wall: 34%, Diego Gobbi: 55%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nicholas Snr Wall: 13,045, level confidence: 34%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi: 20,538, level confidence: 55%.