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David O'Neill v Chris Cave (Mon 18 Mar 2019)

Match won by Chris Cave. Result: 2-11,11-8,5-11,9-11.

Starting level for David O'Neill: 1,505, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Chris Cave: 2,118, level confidence: 67%.
Chris Cave to win as he is currently playing 41% better than David O'Neill.

Chris Cave won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Cave played 34% better than David O'Neill in this match.

In this case, Chris Cave played at level 2,028 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris Cave would normally have been playing at level 2,042 (based on typical behaviour), David O'Neill played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Cave changes to 0% and David O'Neill changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Cave becomes 0% and for David O'Neill becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Cave is 0% and for David O'Neill is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Cave: 82%, David O'Neill: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Cave: 80%, David O'Neill: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David O'Neill: 1,508, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Chris Cave: 2,115, level confidence: 80%.