Sam Levin v Diego Gobbi (Tue 19 Mar 2019)
Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 4-11,3-11,1-11.
Starting level for
Sam Levin:
6,907, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Diego Gobbi:
20,547, level confidence: 55%.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing
197% better than Sam Levin.
Diego Gobbi won all of the games and 80% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played
313% better than Sam Levin in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Gobbi actually played at a level of
24,195 and Sam Levin at a level of
5,866. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.9% and 9.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to +9.9% and Sam Levin changes to -9.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes +2.7% and for Sam Levin becomes -3.5%.
Given Diego Gobbi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change.
Given Sam Levin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.5% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Diego Gobbi is +1.5% and for Sam Levin is -2.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 74%, Sam Levin: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 63%, Sam Levin: 63%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Sam Levin:
6,762, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi:
20,825, level confidence: 63%.