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Oliver Wait v David Freer (Thu 21 Mar 2019)

Match won by Oliver Wait. Result: 15-12,15-8,10-15,14-15,15-14.

Starting level for Oliver Wait: 1,630, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Freer: 1,534, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Oliver Wait to win as he is currently playing 6% better than David Freer.

Oliver Wait won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Wait played 9% better than David Freer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oliver Wait actually played at a level of 1,654 and David Freer at a level of 1,511. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Wait changes to +1.4% and David Freer changes to -1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Wait becomes +1.2% and for David Freer becomes -1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Oliver Wait is +0.9% and for David Freer is -0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Wait: 86%, David Freer: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Wait: 85%, David Freer: 91%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Wait: 1,642, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for David Freer: 1,520, level confidence: 91%.