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Patrick Rooney v Richie Fallows (Wed 20 Mar 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-3,8-11,11-8,11-0.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 26,128, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Richie Fallows: 28,839, level confidence: 67%.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Patrick Rooney.

Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 45% better than Richie Fallows in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of 33,083 and Richie Fallows at a level of 22,776. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +20% and Richie Fallows changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +4.5% and for Richie Fallows becomes -5.3%.

Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 49% has been applied to his level change.

Given Richie Fallows's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 53% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is +2.3% and for Richie Fallows is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 91%, Richie Fallows: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 72%, Richie Fallows: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 26,681, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Richie Fallows: 28,084, level confidence: 65%.