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Joshua Green v Chris Cave (Thu 21 Mar 2019)

Match won by Joshua Green. Result: 15-11,10-15,15-11,15-8.

Starting level for Joshua Green: 2,021, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Cave: 2,118, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Chris Cave to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Joshua Green.

Joshua Green won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Green played 24% better than Chris Cave in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joshua Green actually played at a level of 2,305 and Chris Cave at a level of 1,857. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Green changes to +14% and Chris Cave changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Green becomes +6.2% and for Chris Cave becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Joshua Green is +4.7% and for Chris Cave is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Green: 84%, Chris Cave: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Green: 74%, Chris Cave: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joshua Green: 2,112, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Chris Cave: 2,030, level confidence: 78%.