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David O'Neill v Liam Davies (Thu 21 Mar 2019)

Match won by David O'Neill. Result: 9-15,12-15,15-8,15-10,15-14.

Starting level for David O'Neill: 1,510, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Liam Davies: 1,831, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Liam Davies to win as he is currently playing 21% better than David O'Neill.

David O'Neill won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David O'Neill played 9% better than Liam Davies in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David O'Neill actually played at a level of 1,737 and Liam Davies at a level of 1,592. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David O'Neill changes to +12% and Liam Davies changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David O'Neill becomes +6.3% and for Liam Davies becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for David O'Neill is +4.7% and for Liam Davies is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David O'Neill: 90%, Liam Davies: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David O'Neill: 78%, Liam Davies: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David O'Neill: 1,579, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Liam Davies: 1,745, level confidence: 74%.