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Peter Sharples v Peter Ginty (Thu 21 Mar 2019)

Match won by Peter Ginty. Result: 15-11,15-13,13-15,12-15,8-15.

Starting level for Peter Sharples: 1,067, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Ginty: 1,153, level confidence: 66%.
Peter Ginty to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Peter Sharples.

Peter Ginty won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Ginty played 10% better than Peter Sharples in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Ginty actually played at a level of 1,163 and Peter Sharples at a level of 1,058. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Ginty changes to +0.8% and Peter Sharples changes to -0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Ginty becomes +0.8% and for Peter Sharples becomes -0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Ginty is +0.6% and for Peter Sharples is -0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Ginty: 81%, Peter Sharples: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Ginty: 80%, Peter Sharples: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Sharples: 1,060, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Peter Ginty: 1,158, level confidence: 80%.