Diego Gobbi v Phil Nightingale (Sat 23 Mar 2019)
Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 11-2,11-7,11-9.
Starting level for
Diego Gobbi:
20,755, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Phil Nightingale:
13,001, level confidence: 66%.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing
60% better than Phil Nightingale.
Diego Gobbi won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played
83% better than Phil Nightingale in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Gobbi actually played at a level of
22,242 and Phil Nightingale at a level of
12,132. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.2% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 5.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to +4.4% and Phil Nightingale changes to -5.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes +1.6% and for Phil Nightingale becomes -2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Kings Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 92%, Phil Nightingale: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 86%, Phil Nightingale: 76%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi:
21,081, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Phil Nightingale:
12,742, level confidence: 76%.