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Tom Richards v Diego Gobbi (Sat 23 Mar 2019)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-6,11-9,8-11,11-3.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 40,310, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 21,078, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 91% better than Diego Gobbi.

Tom Richards won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 30% better than Diego Gobbi in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tom Richards was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 31,991 and 40,310 without affecting his level.

As Tom Richards has played below his allowed range at 29,654, his level reduction is 7.9% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Richards would normally have been playing at level 35,910 (based on typical behaviour), Diego Gobbi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 10.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to -5.6% and Diego Gobbi changes to +7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes -1.7% and for Diego Gobbi becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Kings Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 81%, Diego Gobbi: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 67%, Diego Gobbi: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 39,655, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi: 21,656, level confidence: 77%.