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Oscar Hill v Rob Thirst (Sat 23 Mar 2019)

Match won by Rob Thirst. Result: 13-11,9-11,13-11,11-13,9-11.

Starting level for Oscar Hill: 5,313, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Rob Thirst: 5,933, level confidence: 66%.
Rob Thirst to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Oscar Hill.

Rob Thirst won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Thirst played 8% better than Oscar Hill in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Thirst actually played at a level of 5,846 and Oscar Hill at a level of 5,392. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Thirst changes to -1.4% and Oscar Hill changes to +1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Thirst becomes -0.8% and for Oscar Hill becomes +0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Kings Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Thirst: 81%, Oscar Hill: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Thirst: 80%, Oscar Hill: 81%.

Final level for Oscar Hill: 5,355, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Rob Thirst: 5,886, level confidence: 80%.