Oscar Hill v Rob Thirst (Sat 23 Mar 2019)
Match won by Rob Thirst. Result: 13-11,9-11,13-11,11-13,9-11.
Starting level for
Oscar Hill:
5,313, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Rob Thirst:
5,933, level confidence: 66%.
Rob Thirst to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Oscar Hill.
Rob Thirst won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Thirst played
8% better than Oscar Hill in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Thirst actually played at a level of
5,846 and Oscar Hill at a level of
5,392. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Thirst changes to -1.4% and Oscar Hill changes to +1.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Thirst becomes -0.8% and for Oscar Hill becomes +0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Kings Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Thirst: 81%, Oscar Hill: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Thirst: 80%, Oscar Hill: 81%.
Final level for Oscar Hill:
5,355, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Rob Thirst:
5,886, level confidence: 80%.