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Alfredo Avila v Leonel Cardenas (Thu 21 Mar 2019)

Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 10-12,11-8,4-11,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 30,947, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Leonel Cardenas: 25,077, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Leonel Cardenas.

Alfredo Avila won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played 9% better than Leonel Cardenas in this match.

As Alfredo Avila has played below his allowed range at 28,616, his level reduction is 5.1% before damping. On the assumption that Alfredo Avila would normally have been playing at level 30,503 (based on typical behaviour), Leonel Cardenas played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to -4.5% and Leonel Cardenas changes to +4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes -1.5% and for Leonel Cardenas becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Lethbridge Pro Am' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 86%, Leonel Cardenas: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 81%, Leonel Cardenas: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alfredo Avila: 30,487, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 25,537, level confidence: 83%.