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Mohamed Elsherbini v Alfredo Avila (Fri 22 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 35,410, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 30,697, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Alfredo Avila.

Mohamed Elsherbini won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played 52% better than Alfredo Avila in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elsherbini actually played at a level of 40,601 and Alfredo Avila at a level of 26,773. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to +14% and Alfredo Avila changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes +3.1% and for Alfredo Avila becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Lethbridge Pro Am' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 85%, Alfredo Avila: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 75%, Alfredo Avila: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 36,425, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Alfredo Avila: 30,022, level confidence: 78%.