David O'Neill v Mike Hayler (Mon 25 Mar 2019)
Match won by Mike Hayler. Result: 9-11,3-11,6-11.
Starting level for
David O'Neill:
1,577, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mike Hayler:
2,458, level confidence: 66%.
Mike Hayler to win as he is currently playing
56% better than David O'Neill.
Mike Hayler won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Hayler played
83% better than David O'Neill in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Hayler actually played at a level of
2,666 and David O'Neill at a level of
1,454. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.7% and 6.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Hayler changes to +6.7% and David O'Neill changes to -5.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Hayler becomes +3.5% and for David O'Neill becomes -3.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mike Hayler is +2.6% and for David O'Neill is -2.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Hayler: 81%, David O'Neill: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Hayler: 75%, David O'Neill: 81%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for David O'Neill:
1,533, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Mike Hayler:
2,518, level confidence: 75%.