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Robin Crease v Hamish Thornton (Mon 25 Mar 2019)

Match won by Hamish Thornton. Result: 9-11,11-8,10-11,10-11.

Starting level for Robin Crease: 3,664, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Hamish Thornton: 3,705, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Hamish Thornton to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Robin Crease.

Hamish Thornton won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hamish Thornton played 18% better than Robin Crease in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hamish Thornton actually played at a level of 3,995 and Robin Crease at a level of 3,398. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hamish Thornton changes to +5.8% and Robin Crease changes to -7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hamish Thornton becomes +2.8% and for Robin Crease becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Hamish Thornton is +2.1% and for Robin Crease is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hamish Thornton: 93%, Robin Crease: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hamish Thornton: 86%, Robin Crease: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robin Crease: 3,568, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Hamish Thornton: 3,777, level confidence: 86%.