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Jason Crease v Lyndon Cheetham (Mon 25 Mar 2019)

Match won by Jason Crease. Result: 11-6,9-11,11-2,11-6.

Starting level for Jason Crease: 2,844, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,054, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Jason Crease to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Lyndon Cheetham.

Jason Crease won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 68% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jason Crease played 39% better than Lyndon Cheetham in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jason Crease actually played at a level of 2,851 and Lyndon Cheetham at a level of 2,049. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jason Crease changes to 0% and Lyndon Cheetham changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jason Crease becomes +0.1% and for Lyndon Cheetham becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Jason Crease is 0% and for Lyndon Cheetham is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jason Crease: 92%, Lyndon Cheetham: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jason Crease: 92%, Lyndon Cheetham: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jason Crease: 2,843, level confidence: 92%.
Final level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,048, level confidence: 84%.