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Mason McLarney v Steve Baker (Mon 25 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mason McLarney. Result: 11-7,10-11,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Mason McLarney: 2,689, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Steve Baker: 1,967, level confidence: 70%.
Mason McLarney to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Steve Baker.

Mason McLarney won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mason McLarney played 30% better than Steve Baker in this match.

In this case, Mason McLarney played at level 2,577 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mason McLarney would normally have been playing at level 2,606 (based on typical behaviour), Steve Baker played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mason McLarney changes to 0% and Steve Baker changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mason McLarney becomes 0% and for Steve Baker becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mason McLarney is 0% and for Steve Baker is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mason McLarney: 66%, Steve Baker: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mason McLarney: 64%, Steve Baker: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mason McLarney: 2,685, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Steve Baker: 1,971, level confidence: 81%.