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Alex Cave v Leslie Callow (Tue 26 Mar 2019)

Match won by Leslie Callow. Result: 10-15,7-15,4-15.

Starting level for Alex Cave: 620, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Leslie Callow: 887, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Leslie Callow to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Alex Cave.

Leslie Callow won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leslie Callow played 114% better than Alex Cave in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leslie Callow actually played at a level of 1,086 and Alex Cave at a level of 507. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leslie Callow changes to +16% and Alex Cave changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leslie Callow becomes +9.1% and for Alex Cave becomes -10.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Leslie Callow is +6.8% and for Alex Cave is -7.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alex Cave is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leslie Callow: 90%, Alex Cave: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leslie Callow: 74%, Alex Cave: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alex Cave: 597, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Leslie Callow: 946, level confidence: 74%.