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Daryl Selby v Jack Mitterer (Tue 19 Mar 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-9,11-0,12-10.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 38,423, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Jack Mitterer: 13,477, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 185% better than Jack Mitterer.

Daryl Selby won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 79% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 79% better than Jack Mitterer in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daryl Selby was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 21,499 and 38,423 without affecting his level.

In this case, Daryl Selby played at level 26,756 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 29,684 (based on typical behaviour), Jack Mitterer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to 0% and Jack Mitterer changes to +5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes 0% and for Jack Mitterer becomes +1.9%.

Given Jack Mitterer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Kent NW Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is 0% and for Jack Mitterer is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 78%, Jack Mitterer: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 62%, Jack Mitterer: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 38,365, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Jack Mitterer: 13,608, level confidence: 68%.