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Matthew Marshall v Diego Gobbi (Tue 26 Mar 2019)

Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 5-11,5-11,8-11.

Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 9,743, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 21,689, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 123% better than Matthew Marshall.

Diego Gobbi won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played 83% better than Matthew Marshall in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Diego Gobbi was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,934 and 21,689 without affecting his level.

In this case, Diego Gobbi played at level 18,117 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Diego Gobbi would normally have been playing at level 18,375 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Marshall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to 0% and Matthew Marshall changes to +0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes 0% and for Matthew Marshall becomes +0.4%.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for Diego Gobbi is 0% and for Matthew Marshall is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 85%, Matthew Marshall: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 77%, Matthew Marshall: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Marshall: 9,754, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi: 21,657, level confidence: 77%.