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Barry Irvine v Magnus Lamprecht (Thu 28 Mar 2019)

Match won by Magnus Lamprecht. Result: 15-12,8-15,11-15,10-15.

Starting level for Barry Irvine: 826, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,111, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Magnus Lamprecht to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Barry Irvine.

Magnus Lamprecht won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Magnus Lamprecht played 27% better than Barry Irvine in this match.

In this case, Magnus Lamprecht played at level 1,062 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Magnus Lamprecht would normally have been playing at level 1,080 (based on typical behaviour), Barry Irvine played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht changes to 0% and Barry Irvine changes to +1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht becomes 0% and for Barry Irvine becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht is 0% and for Barry Irvine is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Magnus Lamprecht: 86%, Barry Irvine: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Magnus Lamprecht: 83%, Barry Irvine: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Barry Irvine: 833, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,109, level confidence: 83%.