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Mark Henson v Mark Stratford (Thu 28 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mark Henson. Result: 15-14,7-15,12-15,15-14,15-7.

Starting level for Mark Henson: 1,477, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Stratford: 1,217, level confidence: 62%.
Mark Henson to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Mark Stratford.

Mark Henson won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Henson played 7% better than Mark Stratford in this match.

As Mark Henson has played below his allowed range at 1,369, his level reduction is 5% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Henson would normally have been playing at level 1,459 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Stratford played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Henson changes to -3.9% and Mark Stratford changes to +5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Henson becomes -3% and for Mark Stratford becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mark Henson is -2.2% and for Mark Stratford is +2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Henson: 85%, Mark Stratford: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Henson: 80%, Mark Stratford: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Henson: 1,443, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Mark Stratford: 1,250, level confidence: 74%.