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Peter Ginty v Alan Macnair (Thu 28 Mar 2019)

Match won by Alan Macnair. Result: 11-15,12-15,13-15.

Starting level for Peter Ginty: 1,152, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alan Macnair: 1,162, level confidence: 66%.
Alan Macnair to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Peter Ginty.

Alan Macnair won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Macnair played 35% better than Peter Ginty in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Macnair actually played at a level of 1,344 and Peter Ginty at a level of 996. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Macnair changes to +16% and Peter Ginty changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Macnair becomes +8.5% and for Peter Ginty becomes -7.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Alan Macnair is +6.4% and for Peter Ginty is -5.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Macnair: 81%, Peter Ginty: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Macnair: 70%, Peter Ginty: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Ginty: 1,096, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Alan Macnair: 1,234, level confidence: 70%.