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Diego Gobbi v Keith Timms (Mon 25 Mar 2019)

Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-5.

Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 21,656, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Keith Timms: 9,584, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 126% better than Keith Timms.

Diego Gobbi won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played 56% better than Keith Timms in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Diego Gobbi was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,746 and 21,656 without affecting his level.

In this case, Diego Gobbi played at level 16,544 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Diego Gobbi would normally have been playing at level 18,256 (based on typical behaviour), Keith Timms played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to 0% and Keith Timms changes to +6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes 0% and for Keith Timms becomes +2.4%.

Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Diego Gobbi is 0% and for Keith Timms is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 87%, Keith Timms: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 72%, Keith Timms: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Gobbi: 21,636, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Keith Timms: 9,726, level confidence: 72%.