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Rob Fowler v Elliot Lee (Sat 30 Mar 2019)

Match won by Rob Fowler. Result: 10-15,15-7,17-15,18-16.

Starting level for Rob Fowler: 1,352, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Elliot Lee: 1,303, level confidence: 68%.
Rob Fowler to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Elliot Lee.

Rob Fowler won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Fowler played 21% better than Elliot Lee in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Fowler actually played at a level of 1,461 and Elliot Lee at a level of 1,206. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Fowler changes to +6.5% and Elliot Lee changes to -7.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Fowler becomes +4.2% and for Elliot Lee becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for Rob Fowler is +3.1% and for Elliot Lee is -3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Fowler: 91%, Elliot Lee: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Fowler: 84%, Elliot Lee: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Fowler: 1,392, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Elliot Lee: 1,256, level confidence: 76%.