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Sean Massie v Ray Owens (Sun 31 Mar 2019)

Match won by Sean Massie. Result: 3-2.

Starting level for Sean Massie: 311, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Ray Owens: 255, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Sean Massie to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Ray Owens.

Sean Massie won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As Sean Massie has played below his allowed range at 291, his level reduction is 3.6% before damping. On the assumption that Sean Massie would normally have been playing at level 307 (based on typical behaviour), Ray Owens played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 3.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sean Massie changes to -3% and Ray Owens changes to +3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sean Massie becomes -3% and for Ray Owens becomes +3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Sean Massie is -1.5% and for Ray Owens is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sean Massie: 82%, Ray Owens: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sean Massie: 78%, Ray Owens: 83%.

Final level for Sean Massie: 306, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Ray Owens: 259, level confidence: 83%.