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Paul Carey v James Mortimer (Sun 31 Mar 2019)

Match won by Paul Carey. Result: 3-2.

Starting level for Paul Carey: 199, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Mortimer: 213, level confidence: 66%.
James Mortimer to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Paul Carey.

Paul Carey won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Carey actually played at a level of 216 and James Mortimer at a level of 196. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.5% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 7.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Carey changes to +6.8% and James Mortimer changes to -7.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Carey becomes +4.9% and for James Mortimer becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Paul Carey is +2.4% and for James Mortimer is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Carey: 85%, James Mortimer: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Carey: 78%, James Mortimer: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Carey: 204, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for James Mortimer: 207, level confidence: 75%.