Mathieu Castagnet v Chris Simpson (Wed 27 Mar 2019)
Match won by Mathieu Castagnet. Result: 13-11,11-7,11-8.
Starting level for
Mathieu Castagnet:
44,496, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Chris Simpson:
35,633, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Mathieu Castagnet to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Chris Simpson.
Mathieu Castagnet won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mathieu Castagnet played
41% better than Chris Simpson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mathieu Castagnet actually played at a level of
47,339 and Chris Simpson at a level of
33,493. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.4% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.7% and 5.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet changes to +5.7% and Chris Simpson changes to -5.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet becomes +1.6% and for Chris Simpson becomes -1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mathieu Castagnet: 87%, Chris Simpson: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mathieu Castagnet: 82%, Chris Simpson: 84%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mathieu Castagnet:
45,170, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Chris Simpson:
35,287, level confidence: 84%.