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Nicolas Mueller v Tsz Fung Yip (Wed 27 Mar 2019)

Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 11-6,7-11,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 41,016, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 39,863, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Nicolas Mueller to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Tsz Fung Yip.

Nicolas Mueller won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played 28% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicolas Mueller actually played at a level of 45,703 and Tsz Fung Yip at a level of 35,775. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller changes to +11% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to -8.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller becomes +2.6% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes -2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 77%, Tsz Fung Yip: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 69%, Tsz Fung Yip: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 42,070, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 39,187, level confidence: 78%.