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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Borja Golan (Thu 28 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 60,094, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Borja Golan: 43,693, level confidence: 52%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Borja Golan.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 65% better than Borja Golan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 65,821 and Borja Golan at a level of 39,891. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.1% and 8.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to +6.5% and Borja Golan changes to -8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes +1.7% and for Borja Golan becomes -2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 80%, Borja Golan: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 73%, Borja Golan: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 60,995, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Borja Golan: 43,131, level confidence: 66%.