Nick Thompson v Diego Gobbi (Thu 28 Mar 2019)
Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 2-11,6-11,1-11.
Starting level for
Nick Thompson:
4,946, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Diego Gobbi:
21,640, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing
338% better than Nick Thompson.
Diego Gobbi won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played
267% better than Nick Thompson in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Diego Gobbi was taking it easy by anything up to 38%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,497 and 21,640 without affecting his level.
In this case, Diego Gobbi played at level 18,135 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Nick Thompson is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 87%, Nick Thompson: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 80%, Nick Thompson: 72%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nick Thompson:
4,939, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi:
21,608, level confidence: 80%.