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Mark Grace v Douglas Jacobsson (Mon 01 Apr 2019)

Match won by Douglas Jacobsson. Result: 3-11,11-10,5-11,8-11.

Starting level for Mark Grace: 1,132, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,728, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Douglas Jacobsson to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Mark Grace.

Douglas Jacobsson won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Douglas Jacobsson played 36% better than Mark Grace in this match.

In this case, Douglas Jacobsson played at level 1,590 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Douglas Jacobsson would normally have been playing at level 1,638 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Grace played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson changes to 0% and Mark Grace changes to +2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson becomes 0% and for Mark Grace becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson is 0% and for Mark Grace is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Douglas Jacobsson: 88%, Mark Grace: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Douglas Jacobsson: 83%, Mark Grace: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Grace: 1,149, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,725, level confidence: 83%.