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Magnus Lamprecht v Allister Crossley (Mon 01 Apr 2019)

Match won by Allister Crossley. Result: 4-11,10-11,5-11.

Starting level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,113, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Allister Crossley: 1,737, level confidence: 65%.
Allister Crossley to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Magnus Lamprecht.

Allister Crossley won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Allister Crossley played 74% better than Magnus Lamprecht in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Allister Crossley actually played at a level of 1,832 and Magnus Lamprecht at a level of 1,055. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 4.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Allister Crossley changes to +4.4% and Magnus Lamprecht changes to -3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Allister Crossley becomes +3% and for Magnus Lamprecht becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Allister Crossley is +2.2% and for Magnus Lamprecht is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Allister Crossley: 81%, Magnus Lamprecht: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Allister Crossley: 77%, Magnus Lamprecht: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,086, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Allister Crossley: 1,773, level confidence: 77%.