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Patrick Fitzpatrick v Thomas Whiteway (Mon 01 Apr 2019)

Match won by Patrick Fitzpatrick. Result: 11-7,11-7,8-11,8-11,11-9.

Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,926, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Thomas Whiteway: 5,145, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Thomas Whiteway to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.

Patrick Fitzpatrick won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Fitzpatrick played 10% better than Thomas Whiteway in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Fitzpatrick actually played at a level of 4,708 and Thomas Whiteway at a level of 4,291. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to +17% and Thomas Whiteway changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes +6.1% and for Thomas Whiteway becomes -4.4%.

Given Thomas Whiteway's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick is +4.6% and for Thomas Whiteway is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 79%, Thomas Whiteway: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 66%, Thomas Whiteway: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,099, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Thomas Whiteway: 4,976, level confidence: 76%.