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Jason Crease v Ben Peach (Mon 01 Apr 2019)

Match won by Jason Crease. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Jason Crease: 2,844, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Peach: 2,590, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Jason Crease to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Ben Peach.

Jason Crease won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jason Crease played 230% better than Ben Peach in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jason Crease actually played at a level of 4,930 and Ben Peach at a level of 1,494. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 73% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jason Crease changes to +58% and Ben Peach changes to -69%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jason Crease becomes +18.1% and for Ben Peach becomes -22%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Jason Crease is +14% and for Ben Peach is -15%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jason Crease is limited to +10% and Ben Peach is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jason Crease: 94%, Ben Peach: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jason Crease: 54%, Ben Peach: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jason Crease: 3,124, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Ben Peach: 2,463, level confidence: 50%.