SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Mark Webster-Smith v Rob Boyles (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Mark Webster-Smith. Result: 15-13,15-9,13-15,15-10.

Starting level for Mark Webster-Smith: 2,109, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rob Boyles: 2,100, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Mark Webster-Smith to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Rob Boyles.

Mark Webster-Smith won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Webster-Smith played 24% better than Rob Boyles in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Webster-Smith actually played at a level of 2,348 and Rob Boyles at a level of 1,886. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith changes to +11% and Rob Boyles changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith becomes +5.2% and for Rob Boyles becomes -5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith is +3.9% and for Rob Boyles is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Webster-Smith: 88%, Rob Boyles: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Webster-Smith: 79%, Rob Boyles: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Webster-Smith: 2,188, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Rob Boyles: 2,017, level confidence: 78%.