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Magnus Lamprecht v Mark Harrop (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Magnus Lamprecht. Result: 15-11,15-6,15-10.

Starting level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,086, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Harrop: 691, level confidence: 10%.
Magnus Lamprecht to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Mark Harrop.

Magnus Lamprecht won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Magnus Lamprecht played 67% better than Mark Harrop in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Magnus Lamprecht actually played at a level of 1,118 and Mark Harrop at a level of 671. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht changes to 0% and Mark Harrop changes to -2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht becomes +0.3% and for Mark Harrop becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Magnus Lamprecht is 0% and for Mark Harrop is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Magnus Lamprecht: 92%, Mark Harrop: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Magnus Lamprecht: 89%, Mark Harrop: 31%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Magnus Lamprecht: 1,087, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Mark Harrop: 678, level confidence: 31%.