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Douglas Jacobsson v Marc Taggart (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Douglas Jacobsson. Result: 15-12,15-8,15-11.

Starting level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,729, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marc Taggart: 1,055, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Douglas Jacobsson to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Marc Taggart.

Douglas Jacobsson won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Douglas Jacobsson played 48% better than Marc Taggart in this match.

In this case, Douglas Jacobsson played at level 1,589 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Douglas Jacobsson would normally have been playing at level 1,612 (based on typical behaviour), Marc Taggart played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson changes to 0% and Marc Taggart changes to +1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson becomes 0% and for Marc Taggart becomes +1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Douglas Jacobsson is 0% and for Marc Taggart is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Douglas Jacobsson: 91%, Marc Taggart: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Douglas Jacobsson: 86%, Marc Taggart: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,726, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Marc Taggart: 1,062, level confidence: 83%.