SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Mark Stratford v Barry Irvine (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Mark Stratford. Result: 15-11,15-8,8-15,10-15,15-13.

Starting level for Mark Stratford: 1,249, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Barry Irvine: 835, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Mark Stratford to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Barry Irvine.

Mark Stratford won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Stratford played 8% better than Barry Irvine in this match.

As Mark Stratford has played below his allowed range at 1,004, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Stratford would normally have been playing at level 1,189 (based on typical behaviour), Barry Irvine played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.3% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Stratford changes to -9.3% and Barry Irvine changes to +10.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Stratford becomes -5.6% and for Barry Irvine becomes +6.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mark Stratford is -4.1% and for Barry Irvine is +5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Stratford: 85%, Barry Irvine: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Stratford: 72%, Barry Irvine: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Stratford: 1,198, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Barry Irvine: 875, level confidence: 77%.