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Lyndon Cheetham v David O'Neill (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Lyndon Cheetham. Result: 15-6,15-12,15-14.

Starting level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,046, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for David O'Neill: 1,530, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Lyndon Cheetham to win as he is currently playing 34% better than David O'Neill.

Lyndon Cheetham won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Cheetham played 45% better than David O'Neill in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyndon Cheetham actually played at a level of 2,133 and David O'Neill at a level of 1,467. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 3.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham changes to +3.6% and David O'Neill changes to -3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham becomes +2.5% and for David O'Neill becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham is +1.9% and for David O'Neill is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Cheetham: 94%, David O'Neill: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Cheetham: 91%, David O'Neill: 90%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,081, level confidence: 91%.
Final level for David O'Neill: 1,496, level confidence: 90%.