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Diego Gobbi v Scott Handley (Thu 04 Apr 2019)

Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 11-4,11-7,7-11,10-12,11-3.

Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 21,100, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 13,076, level confidence: 64%.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Scott Handley.

Diego Gobbi won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played 16% better than Scott Handley in this match.

As Diego Gobbi has played below his allowed range at 16,627, his level reduction is 9.4% before damping. On the assumption that Diego Gobbi would normally have been playing at level 19,749 (based on typical behaviour), Scott Handley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.3% and 10.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to -6.4% and Scott Handley changes to +10.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes -2% and for Scott Handley becomes +3.2%.

Given Diego Gobbi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Diego Gobbi is -1.1% and for Scott Handley is +1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 84%, Scott Handley: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 72%, Scott Handley: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Gobbi: 20,847, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 13,306, level confidence: 68%.