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Roger Crabb v David Wallond (Sat 06 Apr 2019)

Match won by David Wallond. Result: 2-11,2-11,9-11.

Starting level for Roger Crabb: 1,507, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for David Wallond: 3,164, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing 110% better than Roger Crabb.

David Wallond won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wallond played 154% better than Roger Crabb in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Wallond actually played at a level of 3,479 and Roger Crabb at a level of 1,371. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.8% and 6.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wallond changes to +4.3% and Roger Crabb changes to -6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wallond becomes +2.4% and for Roger Crabb becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for David Wallond is +1.8% and for Roger Crabb is -3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wallond: 86%, Roger Crabb: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wallond: 78%, Roger Crabb: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Roger Crabb: 1,460, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for David Wallond: 3,216, level confidence: 78%.