Alan Clyne v Stuart Macgregor (Thu 04 Apr 2019)
Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-4.
Starting level for
Alan Clyne:
35,720, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
18,995, level confidence: 67%.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing
88% better than Stuart Macgregor.
Alan Clyne won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played
154% better than Stuart Macgregor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of
41,501 and Stuart Macgregor at a level of
16,349. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +11.1% and Stuart Macgregor changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +2.7% and for Stuart Macgregor becomes -3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Scottish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 83%, Stuart Macgregor: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 72%, Stuart Macgregor: 70%.
Final level for Alan Clyne:
36,676, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
18,421, level confidence: 70%.