Leonel Cardenas v Faraz Khan (Fri 05 Apr 2019)
Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 11-5,7-11,11-7,10-12,11-4.
Starting level for
Leonel Cardenas:
25,546, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Faraz Khan:
19,272, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing
33% better than Faraz Khan.
Leonel Cardenas won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played
15% better than Faraz Khan in this match.
As Leonel Cardenas has played below his allowed range at 23,142, his level reduction is 4.8% before damping. On the assumption that Leonel Cardenas would normally have been playing at level 24,894 (based on typical behaviour), Faraz Khan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 5.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to -4.2% and Faraz Khan changes to +5.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes -1.5% and for Faraz Khan becomes +1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Rochester Pro Am' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 88%, Faraz Khan: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 82%, Faraz Khan: 84%.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas:
25,170, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Faraz Khan:
19,611, level confidence: 84%.