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Leonel Cardenas v Jesus Camacho (Sat 06 Apr 2019)

Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 10-12,7-11,11-6,11-3,11-9.

Starting level for Leonel Cardenas: 25,300, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jesus Camacho: 28,535, level confidence: 63%.
Jesus Camacho to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Leonel Cardenas.

Leonel Cardenas won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played 13% better than Jesus Camacho in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leonel Cardenas actually played at a level of 28,560 and Jesus Camacho at a level of 25,277. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to +9.3% and Jesus Camacho changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes +2.5% and for Jesus Camacho becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Rochester Pro Am' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 90%, Jesus Camacho: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 80%, Jesus Camacho: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 25,962, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Jesus Camacho: 27,815, level confidence: 70%.