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Patrick Rooney v Alan Clyne (Sat 06 Apr 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-7,4-11,6-11,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 29,692, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Alan Clyne: 37,982, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Patrick Rooney.

Patrick Rooney won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 6% better than Alan Clyne in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of 34,554 and Alan Clyne at a level of 32,638. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +14% and Alan Clyne changes to -10.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +3.4% and for Alan Clyne becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Scottish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 77%, Alan Clyne: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 66%, Alan Clyne: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 30,748, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Alan Clyne: 37,317, level confidence: 75%.